In prior articles, I have focused on the demand on Colorado River water supplies in Arizona, Las Vegas and Los Angeles due to overuse, increased population growth and heavy farming in these areas. All this could theoretically be manageable if the amount of water being made available is equal to or greater than the amount being used. The one variable I have not analyzed is the amount of water being contributed to Lake Mead and the Colorado River system annually. Just like a simple math equation, the amount going in should be greater than or equal to the amount being used, otherwise a deficiency will occur.
R.B. Provencher
Recently, the United States Geological Survey issued a report on the trends related to precipitation in the Rocky Mountains that result in contributions to the Colorado River and Lake Mead supplies. In the journal Science, Feb. 20, USGS reported that the Colorado River flow dwindles as atmospheric warming drives a loss of reflective snow, which provides protection from evaporation through the reflection of solar radiation. There is a phenomenon known as the “albedo effect” where a covering of snow on the Rocky Mountain ridges actually prevents the snow and rainfall from melting and evaporating too quickly. The USGS concluded that warmer temperatures from global warming have resulted in a reduced snow cap on the Rocky Mountain range that results in the elimination of this protective layer of snow.
From 1913-2017, USGS has shown that average atmospheric temperatures increased by 2.5 degrees Fahrenheit and river flows decreased by 20%. Based on this and projections on further temperature increases, USGS estimates that the Colorado River will lose an additional 25% of its flow by 2050. The bottom line is as atmospheric temperatures increase, the snow cap decreases, and the remaining rain is subjected to quicker evaporation, thereby reducing flows into the Colorado River basin and Lake Mead.
This compounds the effects of heavy overuse downstream and the impacts previously shown will likely occur sooner than predicted. Specifically, prior estimates that the Hoover Hydropower intake loses suction in 13 years, and Lake Mead goes dry in 19 years will likely occur sooner. Although major water restrictions are not being imposed in the Phoenix area in 2020 based on the false sense of security view that conservation has been enough to balance out any reductions needed, this is not likely to be the case in 2021 and beyond.
Since water will be needed in these large southwestern cities as population growth continues and we can no longer rely on the normal pattern of natural supply, now is the time for us to implement a big, bold engineering solution to provide water. Future articles will look at options that have been evaluated in the past and new options that could remedy this situation.
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